110

The Update didn't publish yesterday in the hopes that its 100th post would be about a win. But if we wait for that to happen, it might be a long time before you hear from us again. So here's the bad news. The Sox lost to the Phillies again yesterday. The Magic Number is 110 and the elimination number (i.e., when the Sox are eliminated) is only 92. The team is now 9.0 games out of first place and a Wild Card slot, as the Indians and Tigers are tied atop the A.L. Central.

Anyone who remembers August and September of 2005, knows all too well that nine games is not an insurmountable lead. Cleveland made up more than that margin before the Sox righted the ship and sailed into the post-season. But it's going to be a tough row to hoe. Right now, both the Indians and Tigers are on pace to win 95 games, a good but not fantastic season. So it's not unrealistic to believe that one or both of them will manage to do that. For the Sox to reach 95 wins, the Good Guys will have to go 68-33, which is a .673 winning percentage. No team in baseball currently is even close to that percentage. Boston is tops in the majors with a .651 mark. By comparison, a .673 pace equates to 110 wins over the course of 162 games -- a spectacular record.

It's almost impossible in the abstract for a team to play that well over the next 101 games, but the odds become even longer when you're talking about a team that's playing .443 ball, like the White Sox are. Add the loss of Joe Crede for the season, the continued absence of Scottie Pods, an anemic offense whose stars have all but flamed out, a bullpen that can't be counted on, and a starting pitching rotation that hasn't exactly distinguished itself either and there's really no hope of winning 95. (Thanks to Update reader Mike Sehr for reminding the Update of one of its favorite ways to look at things from the days when the Sox were the ones with the big lead and the other teams faced the hurdle of playing lights-out baseball to catch them.)

Uplifting 100th post, huh? Go Sox!