Fun With Numbers

Update reader Mike Sehr pointed out that the Sox have scored way more runs than they've given up. After last night's game, the figures are 405 runs scored and 318 allowed, which means that the Sox are +87 on the season. Only the team whose name shall not be mentioned (hint: they got swept by the Sox last weekend) has a larger positive margin -- 101 (based on 452 scored and 351 allowed). Only that unnamed team, Texas (458), Boston (428), and Philadelphia (420) have scored more runs than the Sox, and only Oakland (299) and Toronto (316) have allowed fewer.

Is there any significance to the runs scored and allowed numbers? Bill James thinks they're the most significant stat in terms of predicting wins. For example, the formula predicts records for the Red Sox of 50-35; the Yankees, 44-39; the Mets, 40-42; and the Padres, 33-51. In each of those cases, the formula got it exactly right.

The Sox have a predicted won-loss record of 50-32, which means that they're "underachieving" by about three games. The Braves (-6), Phils (-5), and Mariners and Blue Jays (both -4), are underachieving worse. The biggest overachievers are the Angels (+7), Rays (+5), and Marlins (+4). We're not statisticians, but another way to look at it may be that the regression to the mean phenomenon suggests that in the future, the underachievers will do better and the overachievers do worse vis-a-vis the predicted numbers. Either way, Go Sox!