26 (10*)

With 25 games left to play, the White Sox and the Twins have identical 77-60 records. Both teams trail the Red Sox by 3.0 games in the Wild Card race. So who's got the easier road to the Central Division title? The Update says it's the Twinkies.

The Sox have a dozen games left on the road, where they've played to a 31-38 record and .449 winning percentage. They play at Cleveland twice, New York four times, and KC and Minnesota three times each. The Royals are the only team in that group that has a losing record at home. The weighted-average home winning percentage of their opponents is .550. Using the Bill James Log5 method of calculating the chances of winning a single game between a .449 team and a .550 team, the Sox have about a 40% chance of winning that game. Of course, that's for a single game and probably isn't very useful for looking at 12 games, but it will allow us to compare numbers with the Piranhas.

The Twins, who have a slightly better road record of 31-37 (.456), play three games each at Toronto, Baltimore, and Cleveland, and four games at Tampa Bay. Baltimore barely has a winning record at home, but the Rays have the Major's best home record (52-19). The weighted-average home winning percentage of the Twins' opponents is .597, or 47 points higher than the Good Guys'. Their Log5 number is about 36%, or 4% less than the number for the Sox.

At the Cell, the Sox are 46-22 (.676). They entertain the Angels, Tigers, and Indians for three games each and the Blue Jays for four. The weighted-average road winning percentage of these teams is .532 -- skewed higher by the Halos' otherworldly .615 percentage. A rough Log5 number for the Sox in the "average" game is 64%.

In the Metrodome, the Twins are almost as good as the Sox are at home, 46-23 (.667). They play the Tigers and White Sox three games each, but get six chances to beat up on the abysmal Royals (.411). The weighted-average road winning percentage of the Twins' visitors is .431, a full 100 points lower than the Sox's guests. The Log5 number is about 74%, 10% higher than that for the Sox.

So it looks like the Sox have a somewhat easier road schedule, but the Twins have a much easier home schedule. The most important part is likely to be that three-game series in Minnesota on September 23-26. We're not giving up, but we'd feel a whole lot better if it were in Chicago. Go Sox!

* 10 days left until our grandson's due date. Daughter-in-law Kate was having contractions last Saturday and was told to come in to Evanston Hospital, but it proved to be a false call. Kate, Jeff, and their family and friends can't wait, but obviously will have to.