Fun With Numbers

When is it safe to stop watching a White Sox game? So far this year, it's a pretty good bet that you need to watch only four innings to know how it's going to come out. If the Sox are leading after four, their record is 10-3. If they're tied or losing going into the fifth, their record is 5-18. Any earlier than that, there's a better chance the Sox will blow a lead they have or wind up winning if they're tied or losing. That's not surprising; the more time you have left in the game, the more chances you have for a lead change.

What is surprising is how hard it's been for the Good Guys to win if they fall behind early. The Sox are 1-9 when trailing after the first inning, only 4-2 when leading at that point, and 10-10 when tied going into the second. They're 2-10 when behind after two innings, 8-4 when leading, and 5-7 when tied. The Sox are 2-12 when losing after three innings. 8-6 when leading, and 5-3 when tied. So the moral of the story, in true Chicago fashion, is watch early, watch often. What happens later is far less outcome determinative.

The other test is watch to see how many runs the Sox get. The tipping point for our scoring appears to be at six runs. The Sox are 10-2 when scoring six or more runs. Unfortunately, it doesn't take the opponents that many runs to be likely to win. Four or more runs allowed by Sox pitching have resulted in a 2-17 record. The problem is we don't score more than five runs or allow fewer than four runs often enough.

Go Sox! Score more runs and score them earlier.