Wednesday, August 25, 2010

41

Yes, the White Sox beat the Orioles last night (7-5) and the Twins lost to the Rangers, but I want to talk about personnel moves. Specifically, Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz, and Manny Ramirez.

Thornton is going on the 15-day DL with left-elbow inflammation, retroactive to August 18, which means he’ll be eligible to come off on September 2. Ouch, that takes away an All-Star caliber reliever at a time when the Sox can least afford to lose him. Thornton’s loss is compounded by Putz’s joining him on the DL after he reinjured his knee while throwing his third pitch in the ninth inning Tuesday. Lefty Erick Threets is likely to come off the DL to shore up the bullpen, but no way gaining Threets makes up for losing those other two.

The third move deserves its own paragraph. Apparently, the Dodgers are going to place Manny Ramirez and the $4 million left on his contract this season on waivers. Kenny “I haven’t fed my player acquisition habit recently enough” Williams is eyeing the PEDs-using, dreads-wearing, chemistry-upsetting, frequently-injured slugger. Kenny says Manny can do only so much damage in 30 days. Ozzie says he can handle him. I say (again) it’s more proof that the Sox should have re-signed Jim Thome.

Anyway back to the game. Gavin Floyd was back in form, throwing 7.0 innings and allowing only two runs on seven hits and two walks. Chris Sale, who’s been a professional baseball player for all of two months now, tossed an inning of scoreless relief to lower his ERA to 1.23. But then things went up in smoke. Sergio Santos, who had given up only two runs in his last 19 innings, couldn’t get anyone out. He faced four men, giving up three hits and a walk, and gave way to Putz, who physically was unable to get through one batter. Bobby Jenks came in and got a double play and retired the next man to put out the fire, preserve Floyd’s ninth victory, and pick up his 24th save.

Gordon Beckham was the hitting star, with a three-run homer that broke a 2-2 tie in the seventh inning. Juan Pierre had three of the Sox’s 14 hits, as every starter had at least one hit – except for Omar Vizquel. I won’t bore you with the record when pounding out 14 hits. Instead, I’ll frustrate you with the prediction of Coolstandings.com.

The site says the Sox have an 18.9% chance of making the playoffs. Here’s how they explain their numbers:

How do we calculate these statistics? Basically we simulate the rest of the season millions of times, based on every team's performance to date and its remaining schedule. We then look at how many "seasons" a team won its division or won the wildcard, and voila - we have our numbers.
The trick, of course, is to determine what chance each team has of beating every other team. Our method is to use simple team statistics (e.g. runs scored and runs against) to predict how each team will fare against all others. For those of you familiar with baseball prediction, we use a variation of the Bill James "Pythagorean Theorem" to predict results. Pretty smart, huh? That's why we call this prediction mode "Smart mode".
Let’s hope they’re wrong. The Sox are 3.5 games back of the Twins, who have a Magic Number of 34. The Good Guys have two more against the O’s – the worst team in the A.L. – while the Twinkies play the first-place Rangers two more times. But then things switch around. The Sox entertain the Yankees, while the Minnesotas visit the lowly Mariners. At least, we’re not playing the A.L. Central. Go Sox!

P.S.  This The Update's 400th post since we changed over from emailing to blogging.  Our stat counter registers 16,290.  It's a small audience, but there are those who love it.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Happy 400 Chuck aka Sherm "The Rabbit" Lollar. As long as Thome is not wearing a White Sox uniform her's hoping that you get to 600 before he does.
Les

4:16 PM  
Blogger Sherm Lollar said...

Thanks, Les. You and Bob are the charter subscribers to The Update, back when it was just an email I'd send the two of you. So hats off to you too for being part of this thing from the beginning.

5:07 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home